India assolarone of the major producers of modules, its exports to the U.S. and Europe have shown significant growth in recent years. However, according to the latest research report New Model of Global Solar Supply Chain by JMK Research, although Indias solar module exports to the U.S. and Europe will peak in 2025, they are expected to decline from 2026 onwards. This is mainly because domestic manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe will gradually come into operation, reducing reliance on Indian modules.

Export Volume and Growth
In 2023, India is expected to export nearly $1 billion worth ofphotovoltaicmodules to the U.S., accounting for 97% of Indias total global module exports. Particularly in 2023, Indias photovoltaic module exports to the U.S. showed exponential growth, increasing 16-fold compared to 2022.

Influencing Factors
The U.S. investigation into module imports from Southeast Asian countries and President Bidens veto of the congressional proposal to revoke the two-year exemption for solar photovoltaic imports from Southeast Asia have both contributed to the significant growth in Indias solar module exports to the U.S.

Export Prospects
Although Indias solar module exports to the U.S. and Europe are currently high, with the commissioning of domestic manufacturing plants in these regions, exports from India are expected to decline starting in 2026.

Expanding Markets
To address potential reductions in exports to the U.S. market, Indian solar manufacturing companies should target markets outside the U.S. and Europe, such as Africa and South America.

Seizing Opportunities
Some countries may seek alternatives to Chinese imports, providing more opportunities for Indian solar module manufacturers.

Strengthening Cooperation
The U.S. may establish a friend-shoring agreement with India under the Quad Security Dialogue, under which the U.S. will continue to import a certain quantity of photovoltaic products from India.

Production Expectations
By next year, Indias module production is expected to exceed 20GW, surpassing the domestic demand of over 10GW. By 2030, module production is projected to reach approximately 60GW, with domestic demand increasing to over 20GW.

Gap Between Demand and Supply
The gap between domestic demand for solar modules and production in India is expected to widen further in the coming years, meaning India will need to find more export markets to address its overcapacity issues.